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Investment Strategy Dashboard

Updated Weekly
 
Last Updated 10/08/2021

Investment Climate Indicator

Every investment has the potential to increase in value at any time. The key is how much risk of major loss comes with that investment. We call this concept the Reward/Risk Tradeoff, and it's one of the many factors we examine in our portfolio construction process.

Very Bearish
-50%
Portfolios can be positioned with 50% less risk than normal
Bearish
-25%
Portfolios can be positioned with 25% less risk than normal
Neutral
0%
Portfolios can be positioned with a normal risk level
Bullish
+25%
Portfolios can be positioned with 25% more risk than normal
Very Bullish
+50%
Portfolios can be positioned with 50% more risk than normal
Current Zone

Latest Market Observations

This week's market observations directly from our investment team.

1
S&P 500 at a critical long-term position
2
Technical evidence mounting that there is risk of a major drop, a la 2020
3
However, it's not over until the price action sings (sports/opera reference)
4
Economy in Flux, but US Congress more in Flux, a big uncertainty
5
Investing is about combining offense and defense. Now more than ever.

Talking Points

Our current take on financial markets and important issues for investors.

Market Trends

Economy Economy "feels" good right now, but forward-looking data starting to indicate otherwise
Stock Market Stock market looking too much like early 2020 and other past declines. Pay attention.
Interest Rates Treasury rates flying higher again. 10-2 UST spread rising similar to past stock bear markets.
Sentiment Consumer sentiment has crashed, a sign that era of rampant speculation is ending
Volatility Stock market more complacent this autumn than bond market. If that changes, look out below.

Key Macro Themes

Disrupt Your Thinking The nature of investing has changed, change with it
Bubblicious Asset bubbles on verge of popping in stocks, bonds, everywhere
It's the Debt Weak corporate and government balance sheets
No Bullets Fed done as much as it can, created complacency
Do You Speak Algo? Welcome to the FAM market: Fed, Algorithms and Meme Stocks. Requires major adjustments to how we invest.